Introduction

This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for Allergan in the ethical pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.

Reasons to Purchase

*Benchmark Allergan's performance against key rivals in the ethical pharmaceutical sector
*See how Allergan's sales growth over the forecast period will be driven by its focus on a small number of attractive, specialist markets
*Analyze the growth prospects of key product, Botox, as the company seeks additional indications

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Key findings 4
Historical and forecast ethical sales performance 5
Therapeutic strategy 6
Launch and expiry outlook 8
Externalization, geographic and molecule type strategies 10
Externalization strategy 11
Geographic strategy 12
Molecule type strategy 12
SWOT analysis 13
Strengths 13
Weaknesses 14
Opportunities 15
Threats 16
CHAPTER 2 CORPORATE HISTORY 27
Key findings 27
Background 28
Key corporate developments 28
M&A history 29
Acquired by SmithKline Beckman 29
Allergan Spun-out from SmithKline Beckman 30
Acquisition of Oculinum 30
Divestment of Allergan Humphrey 30
Divestment of contact lens businesses 30
Five acquisitions were made in and around 1995 30
Allergan Specialty Therapeutics (ASTI) spun-out 31
Allergan Specialty Therapeutics (ASTI) re-acquired 31
Bardeen Sciences set-up 31
Advanced Medical Optics (AMO) spun-out 31
Bardeen Sciences acquired 31
Oculex acquired 32
Acquisition of Inamed 32
Current corporate structure 32
Allergan Medical 33
Current management team 34
CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE 35
Key findings 35
Introduction 36
Revenue and growth rate analysis, 2002-05 36
Revenue and growth rate vs. peer set 37
Product analysis, 2002-05 39
Growth drivers 39
Botox 39
Restasis 40
Lumigan 41
Growth resistors 41
Alphagan 41
Operating revenue and cost analysis, 2002-05 42
Operating revenue/cost analysis 44
CHAPTER 4 FORECAST PERFORMANCE 47
Key findings 47
Introduction 48
Revenue and growth rate, 2005-11 48
Product analysis, 2005-11 50
Ethical sales are forecast to become increasingly dependent on Botox 52
Pipeline products contribute little to 2011 sales 52
Growth drivers 53
Botox is set to provide the majority of Allergan's ethical sales growth 53
Restasis is forecast to be Allergan's fastest-growing product 54
Posurdex offers significant upside if shown to be efficacious in AMD 54
Lumigan is set to grow with the prostaglandin class 55
Growth resistors 55
Alphagan P faces a slow decline over the period to 2011 55
Key strategic products 56
Therapy area analysis, 2005-11 57
CNS 59
Other 60
Therapy area focus 61
Launches and expiries analysis, 2005-11 64
Launch portfolio 64
Combigan and Ganfort are not expected to launch in the US 65
Forecast to launch in 2008, Posurdex is Allergan's key pipeline product 65
Triamcinolone appears to be a back-up for Posurdex 66
Memantine's potential remains unclear 66
Launch schedule 67
Core portfolio 68
Expiry portfolio 70
Generic Alphagan P 0.15% will accelerate the decline in Alphagan P sales 70
Zorac is not expected to face generic competition until H2 2011 70
Restasis sales offset the decline in other 'expiry' products but earlier generics are possible 71
Launch/core/expiry configuration 72
Externalization analysis, 2005-11 75
Geographic analysis, 2005-11 80
Molecule type analysis, 2005-11 84
CHAPTER 5 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 89
Key findings 89
Overview 90
Ophthalmology 91
Alphagan P 91
Overview 91
Sales forecast 92
Newsflow 92
Competitive landscape 93
Future growth 97
Restasis 99
Overview 99
Sales forecast 100
Newsflow 101
Competitive landscape 101
Future growth 102
Lumigan 105
Overview 105
Sales forecast 106
Newsflow 107
Competitive landscape 107
Future market growth 109
Posurdex 111
Overview 111
Sales forecast 112
Newsflow 112
Competitive landscape 113
Future growth 114
CNS 117
Botox 117
Overview 117
Sales forecast 118
Newsflow 119
Competitive landscape 120
Future sales 121
R&D pipeline 125
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX 127
IMS vs. company-reported data reconciliation 127
References 130
Abbreviations 130
Exchange rates 131
List of Tables
Table 1: Allergan Corporate Executive Committee 34
Table 2: Peer set overview 37
Table 3: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-05 42
Table 4: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-05 44
Table 5: Product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 50
Table 6: Therapy area overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 57
Table 7: Launch portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 64
Table 8: Core portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 68
Table 9: Expiry portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 70
Table 10: Externally developed portfolio, sales ($m), 2005-11 75
Table 11: Molecule type overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 84
Table 12: Key products overview 90
Table 13: Alphagan P: overview 91
Table 14: Alphagan P: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 92
Table 15: Alphagan P: newsflow 92
Table 16: Restasis: overview 99
Table 17: Restasis: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 100
Table 18: Restasis: newsflow 101
Table 19: Lumigan: overview 105
Table 20: Lumigan: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 106
Table 21: Lumigan: newsflow 107
Table 22: Posurdex: overview 111
Table 23: Posurdex: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 112
Table 24: Posurdex: newsflow 112
Table 25: Botox: overview 117
Table 26: Botox: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 118
Table 27: Botox: newsflow 119
Table 28: Allergan's R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration) 125
Table 29: Allergan's R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration) 126
Table 30: Exchange rates, 2005 131
List of Figures
Figure 1: Historical and forecast ethical sales performance (% CAGR), Allergan and its Mid Pharma peer set 5
Figure 2: Therapeutic focus vs. Mid Pharma peer set (%), 2005 6
Figure 3: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), Allergan 8
Figure 4: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), peer set 9
Figure 5: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2005 10
Figure 6: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2011 11
Figure 7: SWOT analysis of Allergan 13
Figure 8: M&A History 29
Figure 9: Current corporate structure 32
Figure 10: Revenue & growth rate (ethical sales) ($m), 2002-05 36
Figure 11: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%) vs. peer set, 2002-05 38
Figure 12: Growth drivers/resistor products of historical revenue performance ($m), 2002-05 39
Figure 13: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-05 43
Figure 14: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-05 45
Figure 15: Operating cost ratio vs. peer set, 2002-05 46
Figure 16: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%), 2005-11 48
Figure 17: Top five products by sales ($m), 2005 51
Figure 18: Top five products by sales ($m), 2011 52
Figure 19: Growth drivers and resistors by product, 2005-11 53
Figure 20: Key strategic products, sales ($m), 2005-11 56
Figure 21: Ethical sales by therapy area ($m), 2005-11 58
Figure 22: Growth drivers and resistors by therapy area (%), 2005-11 59
Figure 23: Ethical sales by therapy area (%), 2005-11 61
Figure 24: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2005 62
Figure 25: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2011 63
Figure 26: Launch schedule, sales ($m), 2005-11 67
Figure 27: Core products sales growth ($m), 2005-11 69
Figure 28: Expiry schedule, sales ($m), 2005-11 71
Figure 29: Launch, core and expiry, sales ($m), 2005-11 72
Figure 30: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), Allergan 73
Figure 31: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), peer set 74
Figure 32: Externalization dependency, sales ($m), 2005-11 76
Figure 33: Growth drivers and resistors, externally vs. internally discovered products, sales ($m), 2005-11 77
Figure 34: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005 78
Figure 35: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011 79
Figure 36: Geographical sales breakdown ($m), 2005-11 80
Figure 37: Growth drivers and resistors by geography, sales ($m), 2005-11 81
Figure 38: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005 82
Figure 39: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011 83
Figure 40: Growth drivers and resistors by molecule type, sales ($m), 2005-11 85
Figure 41: Molecule type sales breakdown ($m), 2005-11 86
Figure 42: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005 87
Figure 43: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011 88
Figure 44: Mechanisms by which current treatments reduce intraocular pressure 94
Figure 45: US glaucoma drug sales by class, 2002-05 95
Figure 46: Allergan's Alphagan franchise, US Rx 2001-05 96
Figure 47: Prostaglandin class sales in the US, 2002-05 108
Figure 48: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales discrepancy ($m), 2005 128
Figure 49: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales forecast growth rates (%), 2005-11 129